Jim Willie: As you said, every company is different, but I think the fear part of Y2K is something like this:
1. All of the large companies (read: ORCL's customers) have significant Y2K efforts well under way.
2. Where necessary they have already ordered any new software to replace non-Y2K compliant software, or have decided they will patch old software.
3. They have drop-dead dates for the implementation of new systems. (I know of one company with a cut-off date of June 30, another of October first. After that, they plan to make no further software implemenations until after 1/1/2000. Whether they actually do make further implementations is still a question, however. As probably is the case for your firm).
4. The period after the cutoff dates will be a barren one for firms such as ORCL, SAP, Peoplesoft, Baan, that rely on the large business market.
Re Dick Schmidt's take that ORCL is a Y2K play, I think he's too late. Actual Y2K revenues will not create a huge bounce, IMO. (That goes for other firms, too, I think).
But, ORCL is a buy for other reasons. And IMO the Y2K slowdown fears are overdone, as well. This period is too important technologically for firms to defer purchase of needed software just because of the Y2K fear. They may stop implementations for a few weeks, but not for 3 months. The need to make application web-accessible, to continue the shift to ERP. To data-mine. You can't stop these for months--you'll get too far behind.
JW--Does your firm have a cutoff date for implementations?
Best,
JS |
