Tero,
Have you been to China?
""""Valueman and all,
I am back from China. Some comments on China front regarding G*.
I believe in GSTRF business model than ever. Too bad I did not have a chance to get more G* when it was at low teens a couple of days ago. I am going to get more anyway.
I visited a semi-rural county in FuJian, which is the province right next to GuongDong province which has a Hong Kong right within GuongZoe Bay . It took a hour and 10 minutes flight from HK to the airport I intend to go. FuJian like GuongDong is considered a very rich province in comparison with other China's inland provinces. However, not in any way compares to our living standard here in US.
China is building its infrastructures (such as buildings and roads (highway and others)) like crazy. One see major demolition of rural old housings and revamping or improving old roads everywhere.
On this major road I traveled (which is like Highway 101 or Highway 99 that go across California), one can use GSM phone with strong signals anywhere on this road. The GSM coverage is limited to this major road and some major extensions lead to cities and sightseeing points. A major highway which is like Highway 5 or Highway 80 that go interstate is being built as I write. And I believe it will be done soon with all GSM coverage. And I believe other parts of China carry the similar infrastructures except big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guongzoe, etc.
Outsise of the above range, it is all open field (no celluar coverage). And we are talking 70 to 80% of the areas that need to be covered. And G* does not have to compete with the current GSM areas. It is truly an extension of landline celluar service. Globalstar will be a major gap filler here. No wonder China Telecom was willing to be a major equity holder of G*. The same went to G*'s Mr. Schwartz. It was a major win to have China Telecom committed to be a service provider. One can see China Telcomm's roadside campaign ad. throughout this major road I traveled.
China Telecomm. is subsiding the wireless phone rate to its customer as I expected. The Chinese are still generally very poor. Those people have wireless phones are either businessmen or high-ranking government employees. It is still a status symbol to have a wireless phone over there.
GSM is there to stay. They really enjoyed the early market entrance benefits. However, it is too early to declare victory for GSM over there. CDMA still has a huge oppt. even though GSM has an early lead.
The question is how fast China will proceed with its reform and how fast they can lift up its people's living standard. I think it takes time. If all goes well, I do not see any reason that G* will only has 200,000 subscribers by 2002. That is a total underestimate! A 1 million number is still an underestimate in my view. G*'s 2nd generation should fill that gap. And I do not see why China needs to spend any more money to expand its GSM coverage to the remaining 70 to 80% areas if it has a better functional system like G* in place.
I am very excited to be in G* that early. And I am going to stay with it!
Good luck to all."""""
Brian H.
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