Fred, I agree with what you said, except on this point:
Sure, there are a lot of 'hindsight no-brainers' out there, like AOL, ATHM and EMC,
I still don't consider AOL a "hindsight no-brainer". They still have to prove that they can make real money. At present price levels, they'd have to make over 5 bucks a share to justify their price--while they're reporting 22 cents. Maybe the move from 16 to 32 was the no-brainer part, but even there--they were still losing money, and other threats seemed more ominous than they seem now. And, I'm not convinced yet that those other threats won't turn out to be very real. Eg., what happens when the telcos decide they don't want further encroachment on their turf? They've got the inside position and financial power to blow AOL out of the water. IMO, of course.
My point is, yes these companies have done well in the last 12 months, but if you have a 10 year time horizon, you still can't say you've backed winners with them.
Best,
JS |
