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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 119.89

-2.3%

3:46 PM EST

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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (116703)	4/12/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (2) of 176387

Chuz, here is the chart... geocities.com You really don't even need to do a 4q rolling average or anything fancy to see the long term trend. It's obvious that every Q4 it looks like CPQ stole mkt share from Dell and Q1 it looks like Dell stole it back. A simple way for folks to understand this trend would be... In 95,96,97,98 Compaq shipped an average of 3.79, 2.83, 2.4 and 1.71 boxes respectively for every 1 system Dell shipped. CPQ historically acheives only 87% of their Q4 volume in Q1. In Q4 98, the ratio of CPQ shipments to Dell was 1.81 to 1. If history holds true and Dell increases volumes by 9% the ratio will be reduced to an all time low of 1.45 to 1. At this rate, by Q1/Q2 of next year, the ratio will be very close to 1/1. MEATHEAD

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