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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (10717)4/12/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Heinz,

>>>> Donald, i just had a look at your index update where you mention the possibility that we may see a blow-off top. i have discussed this with bb a few days ago, saying that we may be in for a blow-off top a la japan '89. as the japan example illustrates, such a top is almost impossible to recognize and time. the reason for this is that it usually occurs with broad participation, on strong volume and rising momentum, which seemingly confirm that the trend is intact.another feature is that short term overbought readings can persist for quite some time in such a scenario. valuations, which are normally already stretched before the beginning of the blow-off phase, get stretched beyond the wildest imaginings........ <<<<<

Thanks for your well thought out post. The reason I am sensing a possible blow-off top is how non-momentum stocks, like the cyclicals,
are starting/doing their ".COM" imitation. Todays move up in the DOW did not surpise me as much as the explosive move in the DOT.X.

Seeya
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