>Tom: <<He is trying so hard to pump this stock up by painting it as an Internut. >>
>Can't agree more. That speech really shows some desperation of M. Dell.
I disagree. Michael Dell is making a very valid point -- I just don't think that it will boost Dell's sales anytime in the near future.
If you look at causes for the slowing growth in PC sales, one of the main reasons is that the upgrade cycle, which worked like a charm for Microsoft and Intel for at least 10 years, faltered in the last two years.
What is the upgrade cycle? It is ever faster machines combined with software apps that use every bit of the speed of the faster machines, that obsoletes PCs in two years or less.
Why has the upgrade cycle faltered? Because software speed has been bottlenecked by an external factor -- the connection to the internet. For all the bloatware that Microsoft can produce, Bill Gates can't drive a user to upgrade if he spends most of his time on a browser that is clearly bottlenecked by a 56K connection. The machines still get faster, but the user's desperation to own the fastest is gone. And once the mid- to low-range machines become ok for most users, not just the price-constrained, the charm has failed.
This is why broadband is now the "great white hope" of the boxmakers. And it will come -- I'm just not holding my breath for it. Once it does come, video -- full screen, 60 frames-per-second video -- will become a standard feature for Internet downloads, video conferencing, pc applications, etc. Then we will see another round of upgrade cycles work like a charm again. |
