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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

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To: Bindusagar Reddy who wrote (7268)4/13/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: bgg  Read Replies (1) of 21876
 
BR --

You come across as naive if you think CSCO is going to take a big fall. I wouldn't bet too hard against them. Forgive me, but for every voice-related acquisition CSCO makes, can't you just as easily point to Lucent's "desperation" to transition into the data networking space (i.e. Ascend)? After all, where exactly is voice traffic supposed to be moving towards? Seems to me that both LU and CSCO have their own weaknesses and hurdles to overcome. For LU, seems to me that they have a lot more money riding on technologies and products that are moving toward obsolescence. So does CSCO, but I would be a little more concerned about transitioning from a largely traditional PBX business. Given that though, I don't think you'll see any rational person analyzing this industry saying that either company is going to take a "great fall." You come across as not so much an investor but a vendor employee with a very competitive (and EMOTIONAL) state of mind.

And besides, I see way too much "Lucent/Cisco will win the network integration market." Give me a break .... it's a HUGE market, and plenty enough for both to do very well and justify their current premiums on the market.
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