>>Thus, the AS claim that the undeniably longer periods of
economic expansion of the post-WWII period are at best
zero-sum, and must inevitably be paid for further down the
road, is highly relevant to porx view.<<
>>The US's worst deflation, up to that time, came in the
1890's. It was due to the fact that there wasn't enough gold
to go around. It was relieved by new discoveries of gold, not
by a reduction of productivity enhancements.<<
Porc,
Both of these indicate a fundamental misunderstanding of what
Austrians think (as have many other posts.) Of course your
usual well written prose addresses them in a highly
impressive fashion. Unfortunately, it addresses ideas that
are not AS ideas or miss the points they are trying to make
about the weaknesses in the fractional reserve system and
their relationship to prior poor economic results. I must be
the worst writer in the world because despite more
conversations that I can count you still don't understand
what they are saying or how those issues are relevant to
excesses that exist today in SE Asia and potentially in the
U.S. too. You remain fixated on a view that you find
offensive (and so would I) that isn't the Austrian view on
how to address economic problems or what their cause is. I
don't know whose view it is except that you enjoy criticizing
it and attributing it to them.
If I explain it an alternate way I may get to the thought
process.
If I had a son that was a severe drug addict and he was going
through withdrawal, I might consider 2 or more alternatives
on what to do.
I might choose a slow weaning off process.
I might choose cold turkey.
***The Austrian idea is to avoid becoming a drug addict.
Once you are drug addict they advocate not using drugs to
ease the pain "if it will provide only temporary relief"
because you will be faced with the same choice again shortly
and solve nothing.
That does not mean that they think all credit is bad, every
boom leads to a bust, the longer the expansion the worse the
outcome, or all increases to the money supply are bad. That's
the PAS (Porc's Austrian School).
They are examining the weaknesses in fiat money and factional
reserve banking and trying to understand their effects on the
economy and how they lead to the downside and heightened risk
of a major bust. Alan Greenspan did this in a recent speech
and more thoroughly before he was an establishment wonk. Of
course he must now work within the system he trashed years
ago.
Again, it not necessary to understand or agree with any of
this to be a successful value investor. I don't use it and as
far as I know Buffett doesn't even know it exists. However,
it may be applicable as a way of understanding the process
that leads to the excesses that can also be recognized by a
bottom up company and industry approach.
This is private because I am trying to avoid the 35th
discussion of the same thing that either I can't explain or
you refuse to listen to. 34 was enough. I hope this helps.
Please leave it at this even if you don't understand it or it
rubs you the wrong way still. I am not debating it or trying
to convert you. I am trying to help you understand it. So far
you do not.
WC
Wayne: For the 36th time, I refuse to allow you to exhaust me by scoring "unanswerable" points in private, that no one could reasonably expect to go unanswered. It takes me a minimum of hours, but more typically days and even weeks, to think through what I want to write. This puts me at an insurmountable disadvantage versus an intellectual adversary that pours out a few hundred words in 15 minutes, and 1500 words in a couple of hours -- unless I can "amortize" the time I spend by "publishing" my responses to more than just one reader. I have explained this over and over privately. If you are truly trying to "help" me, you will accede to my wish that you "rattle the porcupine's cage" in public, not in private.
Thanks.
porc --'''':> |
