India launched a intermediate range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan is planning on launching their own version.
Therefore is something afoot in China??
**********************************
STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
April 14, 1999
Chinese Defense Minister Postpones Meeting
Due to "Emerging Circumstances"
Summary:
A meeting among the defense ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and China scheduled for April 14-15 has
been postponed. The Tass news agency cited Russian Defense
Minister Igor Sergeyev as emphasizing that the reason for the
postponement was not political. Instead, Sergeyev said the
meeting was delayed because the Kazakh minister was sick and the
Chinese minister could not make it due to "emerging
circumstances." What these emerging circumstances are was not
specified, and it raises the intriguing question of what could be
happening at precisely this time that is important enough to keep
the Defense Minister from this meeting.
Analysis:
The Defense Ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, and China were scheduled to hold a meeting on April
14-15 in Moscow to discuss border security, the situation in
Yugoslavia, and several other bilateral issues. However, on
April 13, Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev announced that
the meeting had been postponed. Sergeyev made it clear that the
meeting "will be held and is postponed not for political
reasons." Instead, he said the delay was due to the Kazakh
minister's illness and the inability of the Chinese Defense
Minister General Chi Haotian to come at that time due to
"emerging circumstances."
While the postponement of a defense minister meeting is not
significant in itself, the statement that Chi will be unable to
attend because of "emerging circumstances" is intriguing. While
there are several defense-related issues facing China, it is
interesting that one of them would pressing at precisely this
time and force the postponement of the meeting.
There are several possible emerging circumstances in China.
Following Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's comment in
Washington last week that China has "never undertaken to renounce
the use of force" in pursuing reunification with Taiwan, the
Taiwan Defense Ministry has vowed to go ahead with defense
exercises beginning later this month. Han Kuang 15 will be the
first live-fire defense exercise to be held by Taiwan in the
Taiwan Strait and on Jinmen Island (just a few miles off the
Chinese coast) since the 1995-96 Chinese launch of a ballistic
missile into the Taiwanese shipping lanes. Han Kuang 15 is
scheduled for June, but smaller live-fire exercises will be held
on Penghu Island and Jinmen Island in April and May. During the
1995-96 escalation of tensions, the U.S. responded by sending two
carrier groups in to the area. However, due to the rotation of
forces and the ongoing NATO campaign in Yugoslavia, the U.S. does
not have a carrier group on station in Asia at this time. Were
tensions to rise again, the nearest available carrier would be
the USS Carl Vinson, currently en route from Tasmania and due in
Bremerton, Washington, on May 6. However, as these exercises are
still some time off, this is not likely the immediate reason for
the postponement of the Chinese Defense Minister's trip to
Moscow.
There are two more likely reasons for Chi to postpone due to
emerging circumstances. 1999 is the anniversary of several
social and political events in China. Besides the fiftieth
anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, it
also marks the tenth anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident
on June 4. China has taken several steps this year to counter
any possible social unrest triggered by the different
revolutionary anniversaries. Over the past week, Chinese police
have been detaining dissidents in advance of the anniversary of
the April 15, 1989 death of former Communist official Hu Yaobang,
which sparked the student protests that culminated in the June 4
military crackdown in Tiananmen Square. With the date
overlapping the defense ministers' meeting in Moscow, and the
near paranoia in Beijing of widespread civil unrest this year, it
is possible that this is the trigger for Chi's planned visit
being delayed. Perhaps China is finding it increasingly
difficult to maintain the peace during this time.
Another emerging circumstance that could likely have caused Chi
to hold off on the trip is the impending Pakistani response to
India's Agni-II missile test April 11. The missile, with a 1200
mile range that can reach most of China, was tested while Li
Peng, Chairman of the Standing Committee of National People's
Congress (NPC), was on a state visit to Pakistan. China
condemned the launch, warning it could lead to a South Asian arms
race. With both Pakistan and China now well within the firing
range of India's nuclear-capable missiles, Chi may be working
closely with the Pakistanis as they prepare their response. Just
last year, India's Defense Minister warned that China was India's
biggest enemy.
On April 13, Pakistan military officials finalized their regime's
proposed response to India's test, which will be submitted to the
government. It is widely expected that Pakistan will respond in
kind with a test firing of one of its own ballistic missiles.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said, "We will fulfill
our obligation." Pakistan reportedly has three new missiles it
could test, Shaheen, with a range of 450 miles, the Ghuari II
with a range of 1,200 miles, and the Shaheen II with a range of
1,380 miles.
While it was not made clear by Russian Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev what circumstances Chi was faced with, Taiwan relations,
internal political and social conditions, and China's
relationship with Pakistan and India are prime candidates.
However, the Taiwan military exercises are not pressing, and
while social unrest is a major topic in China this year, unless
there was the immediate threat of another major student or civil
uprising, it would not seem to warrant Chi's postponement of his
trip. It would seem, therefore, that China is truly concerned by
India's missile launch and is working closely with Pakistan to
discuss the situation, prepare a response, and reassess possible
joint defense plans.
___________________________________________________
To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates,
sign up on the web at:
stratfor.com
or send your name, organization, position, mailing
address, phone number, and e-mail address to
alert@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________
STRATFOR, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com |
