Update on ONEM's current value... $50.24 to $61.23 per share, based on 12/31/98 number of subscribers... would appreciate any input...
I've been thinking about fair valuation for ONEM, thought I might look at it again in light of the recent run-ups in the net stocks... found this post from Glenn P. regarding the valuations of some of the other ISPs...
To: Kimberly Lee (1614 )
From: Glenn Petersen Tuesday, Apr 13 1999 12:34AM ET
Reply # of 1758
Kimberly, I think that FCCN's run is just beginning. Two reasons, one of which is a bit of a wild card.
As of December 31, 1998, FCCN had 15,000 customers. Based on their current market cap, these customers are being valued at approximately $3,600 each. If you use the calendar year numbers, the customers of FLAS, GEEK, MSPG and PRGY are currently being valued at $3,900, $3,700, $3,200 and $3,300 each, respectively.
Going back to the per subscriber values worked out earlier...
Message 8561489
...here is an update based on today's share price. ONEM's current value per subscriber would be (21,135,244 shares * $39 current share price / 331,800 subscribers) = $2484/subscriber.
Remember, too that these subscriber numbers are over 3 months old, and we are hoping to see 20% growth (the same as the last 8 Q's)for the Q ending March 31, 1999. If that is the case, the true current subscriber valuation is about $1987...
Now if we take this a step further and compare to valuations in Glenn's example: FCCN $3,600; FLAS $3,900; GEEK $3,700; MSPG $3,200; and PRGY $3,300.
@ 3600/subscriber, ONEM is worth 3600/2484 = 1.45 * 39 = $56.55/share
@ 3900/, ONEM = 61.23/share
@ 3700/, ONEM = 58.09/share
@ 3200/, ONEM = 50.24/share
@ 3300/, ONEM = 51.81/share
And keep in mind, this doesn't even take into account the new subscriber numbers that will be released soon, for Q ending 3/31/99!!! It is highly likely that we can add 20% to the per share prices above... i.e $60.28 to $73.47 per share!!!
Let's hope some of the analysts are doing the math as they write their recommendations...<ggg>
Kathy :)) |
