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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Trader Dave who wrote (2700)4/14/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (1) of 6974
 
>>artificial acceleration in the business in the 1995 to 1998 timeframe that would see an inevitable slowdown.

You took an excerpt out of my entire post and missed the point. Talking about an 'inevitable slowdown' when you are growing the way PSFT, BAAN and SAP were (for the amt of time they were) is a little obvious, artificial acceleration or not. Baan was a joke with their accounting and competetive position etc... Peoplesoft talked a good game. They were in unsaturated verticals (education etc..) and went along with no competition for a long time. SAP came in and PSFT learned a lesson in competition. PSFT is SYBS of the late '90s where SAP is Oracle.

I am not short SEBL and believe PSFT a year ago and SEBL today are not directly comparable. My point was that PSFT was flying high in early '98 and every good analyst (oxymoron notwithstanding) had picked it as their software core holding because they thought PSFT could figure out ways to add value to their existing installed base. Now it looks like SEBL can do well and sell significantly more software in '99 relative to '98.

Well, 1999 is a bizarre year and nobody can predict that corporations will do what they should and buy software that makes them more efficient and competitive, despite your 'fundamental work'. Big corporations have lots of red-tape and signing off on expensive software is not always that easy.

SEBL has a large pipeline and the chances are they convert it to revenue. In this kind of a year however, it is quite understandable that investors don't want to pay large multiples for companies selling big-ticket items to the IT department.

"you will soon see what the outlook looks like" - what are you talking about? I know the saturation level of SFA is very low. Your condescending tone is annoying.

I am avoiding software for another quarter at least. Fight the trend if you want. I couldn't care less if SEBL goes back to $50.

bye

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