When dealing with a stock like SIEB (or any internut type stock), you should realize that you are not playing the stock, but the stock holders. This makes TA a lot more subjective than other times. Based on my experience, the stock should not have penetrated 48 yesterday. Take a look at the intraday action, and you see that very late in the day, a few people pushed it to a new intraday high, whereas as a rule, people do not want to be buying (or shorting) this kind of stock after 3pm to hold overnight because the close-to-open risk is too high. But a few people took advantage of this lack of liquidity to push the stock at very good levels. Therefore, to the casual observer it looked as if there is a ton of momentum behind this stock and it should go a lot higher today. I expected the stock to surge very early in the morning and then drop like a rock. And it did exactly that. Once it strated to drop, anyone who remembers the last run up and the consequent crash, would think that this is deja-vu all over again and would either sell or short. This too happened to the extent that whereas I could easily barrow a few thousand shares to short yesterday, I could not get any today. So now all the short sellers are in it too. If AMTD reports 10~15 cents as I expect them to (estimates are for 6) then it will gap up tomorrow and all the bears are traped inside. If on the other hand we go down tomorrow, the ploy that was played late yesterday to lure all the bulls is in place.
good luck,
Sun Tzu
P.S. AMTD just reported 14 cents <VBG> |
