>>ATHM is an absolute steal at these low levels! <<
ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! At these prices you should hopr every single home in the US is their subscriber before they reach fair valuation. At a PSR of 328 and a value of 48000 per subscriber you should really pray that we do not get a bad market condition this centuary.
@HOME CORP. (ATHM) 182: supplier of Internet access via cable reported another solid quarter, but still remains a concept stock. ATHM lost seven cents a share in Q1, right in line with expectations. Revenues were up 30.7% sequentially and 332.8% year/year. Both of these growth rates have been trending lower -- sequential growth had ranged from 39.1-58.6% in the prior four quarters, and year/year growth was over 800% just three quarters ago -- but that is only natural as the absolute dollar totals rise. What is more important for @Home is that they continue to prove their concept, because this is, after all, a concept stock. Why do we say that? ATHM sports a market cap of roughly $22 bln on trailing four quarter revenues of just $67 mln. Its service is now available at 15 mln homes, up from 7.9 mln a year ago, and its potential global reach via distribution partners is now 65 mln. Here's the key for @Home -- penetration. Of the homes at which the @Home service is available, only 3.1% subscribe (460,000 as of Mar 31). The good news is that this number has been trending steadily higher and is almost double the year-ago penetration of 1.6%. The bad news is that this number needs to increase much further to justify @Home's valuation. The company is moving ahead with its purchase of Excite (XCIT), but we remain unimpressed with this combination. The purchase of Excite doesn't significantly help the drive to sign up @Home subscribers, and the @Home service drives a negligible number of eyeballs to Excite (@Home reported 116 mln hits to its site in all of Q1 -- compare that to Yahoo's 235 mln per day in Q1). The revenue and subscriber trends are good for ATHM and could continue to drive the stock's momentum in the near term, but there is still a long and competitive (DSL, wireless) road ahead to warrant a $22 bln valuation. The stock traded flat with its 180 7/8 close in after hours trading. |
