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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..]
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To: MangoBoy who wrote (24)4/14/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: SteveG  Read Replies (1) of 1860
 
ARTT: First International Network Slated For May 1999 Deployment
Bankers Trust Research/BT Alex. Brown Research
Bo Fifer
April 14, 1999

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ADVANCED RADIO TELECOM CORP. [ARTT] "BUY"
First International Network Slated For May 1999 Deployment
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Date: 04/14/1999 EPS 1998A 1999E 2000E
Price: 13.25 1Q (0.50) (0.76) NE
52-Wk Range: 16 - 2 2Q (0.42) (0.77) NE
Ann Dividend: 0.0 3Q (0.56) (0.79) NE
Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q (0.57) (0.82) NE
Mkt Cap (mm): 389 FY(Dec.) (2.06)A (3.14) (3.94)
3-Yr Growth: FY P/EPS NM NM NM
CY EPS (2.06) (3.14) (3.94)
Est. Changed No CY P/EPS NM NM NM
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HIGHLIGHTS:
-- Advanced Radio Telecom (ART) announced plans this morning (14-Apr) to
construct its first international network in Norway beginning next
month.

-- POSITIVE NEW NEWS: First and foremost, we have a hard time believing
management would be moving forward with international plans without a
high degree of confidence that it would be successful in attracting
much-needed strategic capital. The company expects to begin offering
beta services next month (May 1999) with a focus on high-speed
Internet access services targeted at small to medium sized businesses.
The point-to-multipoint (PMP) network is being supplied by Netro
(through Lucent) on ART's 26 GHz license (we note that 26 GHz is a
mature frequency in Europe and does NOT imply wide scale deployment of
PMP technology in the U.S. yet).

-- NEGATIVE NEW NEWS: None, based on the Company's prior statement that
it is making progress in its discussions with strategic investors.

-- NET-NET: We do not believe that the demand for high speed data access
is confined to the United States. The ATM-based networks that ART
(and WinStar) are constructing overseas are relatively low-cost and
high-speed, and should help the company tap into the demand for
greater resources in the last mile.

-- VALUATION: Our 12-month price objective for ARTT, based on our 10-year
DCF using a 10x terminal multiple and a 25% equity discount rate to
reflect the imminent need for financing, is $14/share. Our standard
20% discount rate, which we would apply, all else being equal, if ART
can solve its financial question marks, implies a 12-month objective
of $20/share. Maintain our "buy (2)" investment rating on the shares.
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