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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Bill F. who wrote (33654)4/14/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Bill:

i wanted to comment on something in your Rap (which was VERY good tonight BTW)

"More on Japan... Yesterday I was talking about Japanese repatriation. There was some clarification last night in the Japanese newspapers that the life insurance companies would be cutting back their purchases of foreign bonds, not reducing their holdings of them. In any case, it seems to have created some turmoil in the dollar-yen relationships, as the yen was much stronger vis-a-vis the dollar for the second day in a row. Whether this is noise or the start of a trend now that Japan's fiscal year has ended, we'll have to wait and see. If the Japanese did decide to repatriate capital and sell bonds, obviously that would be a very ugly development for our market. "

IMO, the yen (w/ their s-t rates at zero and Japan historically running trade surpluses) cannot weaken anymore against the dollar unless either A) Japan sinks into the Pacific B) the Japanese begin printing yen and dropping it from planes or C) they decide they just love our paper cause it is green and just gotta print up some of theirs to get it and besides.. they have no problem paying for Bubba's war in the Balkans, their times or so good they can afford to have their commodity prices soar -g-.

the yen will rise and their assets here will fall in value.. they will sell just like we sold Brazil or Thailand, whether they want to or not.

just something to keep in mind, IMO
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