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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11053)	4/14/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (2) of 99985

This chart should scare the bejesus out of us all. white-crane.com It's a weekly chart of the DOW 30 Industrials from 1982 to present. There is a well defined channel that we hit the top of today. This channel top was hit in at these times: August 1987 - declined from 2750 to 1616 (-41%) August 1997 - declined from 8300 to 7000 (-16%) April 1998 - declined from 9300 to 8600 (-8%), Then climbed to back to 9300 before falling to 7400 (-20%) Now, I'm not Chicken Little. I'm a long term bull. But this is warning me to get out of this market for while. I think the fundamentals of this market are strong (low interest rates and big cash inflows.) So I don't expect a big correction. I just don't want to be in for even a small one. In the last few days I've sold HD, WMT, MWD, NITE, PFE, VISX, CYMI. I'm hoping for a bounce tomorrow so I can sell some others. Good luck.

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