The Peabody Mini-Report: 4/14/99
The PRN Mini-Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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PFE Stats (4/14/99):
A typical Big Pharma sector rotation day with all "Healthy 13" down strongly...
Don't you love it to be upset that PFE closed only at 144.63!!!!!"
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 10,411.60 +16.60 New record high...but NASDAQ down -76
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 144 5/8 at 17:01 Bounce from the low
Change: Down 4 11/16 (-3.14%)
High: 149 5/8 at 9:33 Opens near all-time high
Low: 143 at 15:19 4% intraday swing- usually indicative of a reversal
Open: 149 3/16
Previous Close: 149 5/16 on 4/13
Volume: 3,175,400 High volume
30-Day Avg. Volume: 2,429,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,293,175,000
52-Week High: 150.12
52-Week Low: 86
Beta: 0.93
Yield: 0.50%
P/E Ratio: 56.7
EPS: 2.55
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The Peabody Model
-Click here for a summary of the principles behind the Peabody Model.
Short-Term PFE Trend: Neutral with an upward bias (4/10/99)
After reaching an all-time high, Da Model automatically turns Neutral or Down if the target Peak is reached.
Target Peabody Peak: The pending Peabody Peak was set on Monday, 4/12/99 (150.13). The new target Peabody Peak is a record 157.25 (+8.7%) by Monday, 4/26/99.
Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong, the target Peabody Valley is 133.31 (-7.8%) to be reached by 4/19/99. The Valley Strike Price is $140.13 (-3.1%).
Predicted PFE Level: At the current record Dow high level of 10,412, the predicted PFE price is 149.91..... Accordingly, PFE is 3.5% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends.
Da Short-term PForecast (4/14/99) PFE: 144.63, Dow: 10,412: Be very alert!!!! PFE 1 Qt earnings could trigger a strong move up or down. If the move is down to the 140 level, another PFE buy opportunity will be upon us. The bell will be ringing and Mr. Peabody will be buying. Like most PFE 1999 buy opportunities , it may last only for a period of 30 minutes to an hour...... If the move is up as indicated by Da Model, the 150 level will be blown away before next's week's Celebrexation.
Da Gut Feel: PFE will move up higher from the open with a positive EPS Report.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $130 to $140 (4/14/99)
The Peabody Portfolio: We have a double plus (+111.88%)
The Peabody Portfolio consists of 29 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,500 PFE shares at an average price of $68.29 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys).
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,500
Average PFE purchase price: $68.29
Annualized return: 90.1%
Current return: 111.8%
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 200
Average PFE purchase price: $113.63
Annualized return: 107.7%
Current return: 27.3%
Date............#..........Purchase
Purchased...Shares...Price
8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38
10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44
12/4/96:......200..........$41.69
12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50
12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44
12/31/96:....200..........$41.50
1/2/97:........200.........$40.94
1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38
2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69
3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88
3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81
3/31/97:........200..........$42.56
8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13
4/16/98:........200...........$97.00
4/27/98:........200...........$113.00
5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50
5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00
5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75
7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00
7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50
8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00
8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63
8/11/98..........100..........$100.00
9/01/98..........100..........$97.63
10/06/98.........100..........$94.00
10/09/98.........100..........$89.00
10/14/98.........100..........$89.50
01/10/99.........100........$117.00
01/12/99.........100........$110.25
Total:............4,500.........$68.29
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Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 4/10/99
Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90.
The columns include the following data:
- PFE prices
- % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak
- predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model
- difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price .
___________________________________________________
................................................................................ Predicted
.........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff
...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/
Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual
1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5%
2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0%
3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7%
4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3%
5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9%
6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2%
7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4%
8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2%
9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4%
10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7%
11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4%
12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5%
13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2%
14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1%
15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1%
16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2%
17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1%
18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9%
19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7%
20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1%
21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8%
22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6%
23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7%
24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1%
25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9%
26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9%
27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8%
28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0%
29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7%
30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7%
31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0%
32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7%
33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9%
34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6%
35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1%
36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6%
37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8%
38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9%
39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4%
40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1%
41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8%
42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1%
43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5%
44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6%
45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6%
46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0%
47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4%
48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9%
49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1%
50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0%
51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6%
52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3%
53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5%
54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6%
55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8%
56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2%
57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4%
58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0%
59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2%
60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6%
61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5%
62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6%
63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4%
64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7%
65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9%
66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7%
67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7%
68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6%
69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6%
70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8%
71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1%
72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3%
73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1%
74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2%
75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9%
76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0.......157.25.......+4.7%
77....Peak*.....4/12/99... 150.13.......+11.3%.......17....2.....
........*Pending
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Average..Peak (1999) N=3..............+16.6%.....27.............3
Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3
Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7
Average..Peak (90-99) N=39...........+27.5%.....63 ............4
Average..Valley (1999) N= 3 ........... -9.6%......7 .............1
Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3
Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2
Average..Valley (90-99) N=38 .........-14.0%.....29 .............6
The Peabody 1999 Archives
4/10/99 PFE@146 "Neutral with an upward bias...Particularly exciting week with many forces at play...Expect traditional profit-taking down to 140 before the run at 150..."
www3.techstocks.com
3/29/99 PFE@141: "Headed higher to an all-time high (144 1/2) and more.....PFE will propel pass 150 in April".
Message 8595595
3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135)."
Message 8569605
3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level."
www3.techstocks.com
3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s."
www3.techstocks.com
2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142".
www3.techstocks.com
2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140".
www3.techstocks.com
2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high".
www3.techstocks.com
2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week."
www3.techstocks.com
2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins".
www3.techstocks.com
1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135)
www3.techstocks.com
1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin".
www3.techstocks.com
1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day."
www3.techstocks.com
1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum."
www3.techstocks.com
1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced"
www3.techstocks.com
1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1."
www3.techstocks.com
The PFE 1999 Split: All you need to know
-At the 4/22/99 Annual Meeting, shareholders will officially authorize increasing the number of outstanding shares to allow a 3-1 split.
-In the afternoon of 4/22/99, the PFE Board of Directors will meet and formally approve the 3-1 split and determine its effective date.
-The effective split date will probably be following the June 30, 1999 close..(based on the 1997 split which also became effective after the 1997 Annual Meeting.)
-A split does not increase the value of PFE. However, historically it certainly has not hurt the PFE price . Note PFE's growth during the split years:
Year Ending..... Dow ........PFE......% Chg .
Date................ Index.......Price.....Prior Year....Comments
12/31/87...........1,896........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash
12/30/88...........2,169........7.25.......24.7%
12/29/89........... 2,753.......8.69......19.9%
12/31/90............2,634.......10.10.....16.2%
12/31/91............3,168.......21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91)
12/31/92.......... 3,301.......18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president
12/31/93......... ..3,754........17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending
12/30/94......... ..3,844........19.32.......12.0%
12/29/95............5,177........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95)
12/30/96............6,448........41.50.......31.7%
12/31/97............7,908........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97)
12/31/98......... ..9,181........125.00......67.6%......Viagra approved (3/27/98)
04/14/99............10,412.......144.63......15.7%.....Celebrex launched (1/19/99) |
