We're talking about two days. This is big, but it could be leading not to a soft landing, but to a final catharsis - (cyclicals run ===> Interest rates rise, BYE!) I don't believe this orderly transition is sustainable yet, and I was psychologically ready to face a runup in the stocks I sold without changing the course. That was not by any means a one month call. (Covering my Amazon short a week ago may go down as an even dumber move. This has not been a good year in Jim-land. My wife is about to take over the brokerage account. You know that feeling.)
The one thing I will buy are net-nets that pass my additional tests (sustainable business, real asset value, and a catalyst). Because a) Every one of these I ever bought has gone up over 50% within a year; and b) in my experience, they have almost zero correlation with the market, even major moves. I only wish I could find more of them - its usually one every six months. Think I found one today for the first time in a year, and for the first time in two years, its not a shoe company. Let me get a position and we'll compare notes in a week or so.
And here's a story for a market top. My 22 year old cousin is thinking about doing a little investing. She has been playing one-week dummy portfolios in a contest on AOL. She asked me if 34% in a week is a good return. I chuckled and asked her what she "owned". AOL, Amazon... She finds them by watching what the guy who won last week owned. ("So, not a good day today, huh?") Then she asked me about an investment term she heard - "Jim, what's a liability?" 34% in a week. Don't quit the day job.
JJC |
