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Biotech / Medical : dsco Discovery Laboratories

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To: Phil Cressman who wrote ()	4/14/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: wontgetfooledagin	Read Replies (1) of 318

Premature baby market is $100 million worldwide. Adult respiratory distress (ARDS) $ 4 billion worldwide which breaks down as follows: 500,000 cases worldwide with a price tag of $8,500 per treatment is the figure tossed around. In the USA 250,000 x $8,500 = $2,125,000. What portion of this market can dsco realistically capture if and when there synthetic surfaxin is approved. (MAS in babies as well as ARDS are on FDA fast track. There is practically no competition. The current surfaxin in use is a much more expensive drug made from cow urine)The synthetic surfaxin can be mass produced and costs a fraction of the current drug. These treatments will only be done in intensive care units of hospitals which dramatically curtails the non-USA markets. I am guessing down to around $500 million outside of the USA. If DSCO can capture 20% of this market we are talking about $100 million. In the USA a much higher percentage of the estimated 250,00 ARDS cases will be treated in hospitals. Lets call the real market here $1 billion and if dsco can capture 20% that is $200 million. The upside potential is great. They need to secure pharma partners which management has told me they are currently focusing on.

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