Raymond,
You have made some very astute comments here the past week, and really shed some insight for us all. I remember, "Gee, isn't it time for the shorts?" and "It's going to 150 next week." I also now see, "Anyone competing with Microsoft cannot remain independent."
Congratulations on your good fortune in market timing, Raymond. However, a lucky timing buys your zero credibility, and gloating about it repeatedly with minimal coherent rationale makes you look boorish. If you are so confident, why did you sell your puts today? Surely you would have gotten more than 20 if your bold, accurate predictions come true.
You did not benefit by buying puts in RNWK. You benefitted from a general Internet correction day, and a rather severe one at that. You just chose a stock that has been moving much faster than most, amplifying your good fortune.
When the IBM deal was announced, RNWK jumped 25 or so when rest of the Nets moved down. It has been a crap shoot, but to think that this is a demise of RNWK is ignorant, when everybody and their brother was stating that RNWK is a potential gorilla in streaming media software. When this little corrective episode ends, which may be tomorrow or 2 months from now, RNWK will be right with the leaders. The faucet doesn't stop that quickly.
And as for acquisitions pricing, I would bet that few people would have believed on january 1 that Yahoo would have bought BCST for $5.7B in March--it would have seemed absurd. The fact is, nobody knows what will be happening, but history tells us that few that reach these heights in NetDom have crashed. In fact, I can think of none that have hit $8B in market cap that have really moved down much at all.
Enjoy your winnings from today, but don't think too highly of yourself. Today will be forgotten within 6 months, I'll have more equity in RNWK than I had yesterday, and you might have had more timing success, too. But most of all, learn to keep your piehole closed a little more instead of gloating. We may have actually thought you had more ability in market timing than you now seem to.
G
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