Rob,
I think that the digital wireless market is sufficiently in its infancy so as not to allow any kind of call on its relative importance in the future. A few years ago we were saying the same things about set-top boxes. I believe that the PC will continue for a number of years as the primary connection to the internet. There will be PCs given away (there already are) but the architecture strides forward. The problem with portable devices is that the user interface is too slow. A touch-typist is handicapped on today's laptop computers already (I fall into that category). We will need voice and other methods of interaction (voice won't be any good for use on an airplane or if confidential information is being input). Wireless works for me if used as an adjunct to something that allows me to interact at a useful rate.
So I wouldn't count the x86 market out quite yet. There will still be a use for low-cost, MHz-competitive devices. That ought to be Centaur's charter, and if they can deliver somehow then that will become a profit center. I don't see other areas where the barrier to entry is sufficiently high to allow IDTI to carve a protectable niche. What I do see for IDTI, thanks in part to your earlier post, is a very slow process of becoming profitable and growing again. The question then becomes, "Do I buy more shares, hold the ones I have or sell some or all of them?" It looks to me that if the news isn't sufficiently encouraging by the late this year, it would be time to rotate out of IDTI and into something else. By late this year it will be clearer what Centaur has been able to accomplish and we will have a better handle on the comms market.
I disagree about the fab decision being ridiculously faulted. The existing fabs were capacity-constrained and used outmoded technology (large line widths and 6" wafers). The choices were to retrofit existing fabs risking costly downtime, possibly coupled with or replaced by outsourcing, or building a new fab. When the money was there and the need was perceived, I can't fault the decision based on the information available at the time. In fact, I applauded the decision at the time and bought stock! With 20-20 hindsight we can observe that the cost was not easily absorbed. But the biggest problem was in management seemingly not committing the full energies of the company to shifting production to the new fab. The old fab in California was not closed until quite recently, if I recall correctly.
However, you are right in saying that they are still paying for the new fab.
-musea |
