Gregg: Let there be light...and there was light..
Great to see you back, has it taken that long to work out your tax returns? ;)
Nice post, but I would challenge one assumption and that is the three modes will be mandatory. My view is that the three modes will be optional and that there is no real convergence.
If they are optional -and no doubt they will be or otherwise we would have to have a handset with 3 different CDMA modes and a TDMA mode, not to mention the different frequencies- then by deploying IS-95 is no guarantee that it will be compatible with anything deployed in the future. Where is it stated that the three modes will be backward compatible with IS-95? The statements I have read have been carefully worded to say backward compatible with IS-95 and GSM-MAP. It doesn't say both. The optional part will ensure that the market decides, and by that I mean the consumer...if there is a need it will be fulfilled.
As for capitulation it depends on your stance. every knows where we stand so I 'll take from the oppositions point of view: Qualcomm capitulated on their demands (so called fairness principles). You and I both know that the respective camps were only using their public positions as bargaining chips. So you could either say both camps capitulated or they both won...it just depends on what you are pessimistic or optimistic.
Ericsson gained a rapid way of entering a new market, it wont be overnight, but overall they now have unparalled expertise in the total mobile infrastructure market. Not bad for the price, even though the losses will continue for a while but Ericsson is large enough to absorb it to make little difference even in the short-term.
As for the royalties, I would still like to know exactly how Qualcomm set the royalty rate? It is immaterial to Ericsson as they are the ones not paying for it...it will be the consumer in the end. Now you may be closer to the source than anyone here, but can you enlighten as to what the cross-licensing really entails? Yes, I know it will be a net flow to Qcom, but how does it work?
Anyway, great to see you back.
All the best,
Mika |
