Guys:
I'd be lying if I said that I didn't enjoy watching the stock go up, not to mention the newfound love and affection from clients who suddenly upped their estimation of my IQ by about fifty points.
On the other hand, you hopefully didn't buy the stock for its appreciation over the next fifteen minutes. Let's face it, the stock was grotesquely undervalued before because, by and large, nobody understood the business, few were confident in the IPR position, and most believed that ERICY management was telling something near the truth regarding their company's need for QC IPR. What has changed?
Well, the Evil Empire blinked. Heck, I know we are supposed to be best buddies and all, but when I was in New York for the great unveiling and saw Irwin standing next to Sven...and I thought back over all the lies, deceptions, innuendo and Cabism's etc...well, let me put it this way...Irwin is a far bigger man than I 'cause I wanted to punch that Swedish so-and-so in the nose. But business is business.
Qualcomm is now in the catbird seat. My previous allusion to Microsoft and Intel was not hyperbole. Microsoft 'extracts' its royalty from the PC industry every time a Windows-based computer gets sold. Qualcomm will receive a similar royalty anytime CDMA subscriber or infrastructure equipment is sold worldwide. On the other hand, Intel sells the brain, i.e. the Pentium, that drives most IBM-compatible personal computers. Qualcomm's ASIC division is similarly situated. These are long-duration, powerful franchises. Within this context, the biggest challenge facing 'real' Qualcomm investors, i.e. those NOT interested in the next fifteen minutes of appreciation, is setting an appropriate timeline and not getting caught up in the day-to-day, week-to-week price swings.
All the best,
Gregg |
