$200 Modems To Move Millions Of Bits Of Data
Source: Inter@ctive Week
Inter@ctive Week via Individual Inc. : Modem giant U.S. Robotics Corp. is promising to deliver $200 digital modems as early as this summer that can deliver data at speeds of 1.5 million bits per second, about 50 times faster than conventional analog modems.
The Skokie, Ill.-based company said it plans to capitalize on Digital Subscriber Line, or xDSL, technology now being adopted by telephone carriers to pump data at high speed on copper telephone lines.
The company said it can deliver Asymmetric DSL, or ADSL, modems that operate at 1.5 megabits per second downstream for $200 by the summer. But, just as critically, the company said its modems will support two competing versions of ADSL technology -- and also existing analog dial-up protocols, such as those used by its 56-kilobit-per-second modems just entering the market.
USR's 56-Kbps modems have run into delays getting to market this month. Nonetheless, the company could shake up a digital market that is divided between the two competing versions of ADSL -- Discrete Multitone, or DMT, and Carrierless Amplitude Phase, or CAP, modulation -- and is looking at costs per telephone line that remain well above $1,000.
By making its modem products widely available through consumer channels at lower prices, the company could help drive ADSL back into the residential market. Most telephone companies and Internet service providers today are looking to use xDSL traffic for their business customers, which are less worried about high prices for equipment and service in order to get faster access.
"There are still some questions here," said Kieran Taylor, analyst with TeleChoice Inc., a Verona, N.J., consultancy. "It's a matter of whether they can deliver the products as promised. But U.S. Robotics is the 500-pound gorilla of the modem marketplace, and they can push consumerization of ADSL better than anyone."
Asghar Mostafa, vice president and general manager of a new Broadband Copper Access division created to capitalize on xDSL, said his company is viewing its ADSL products as "just another modem," and not as revolutionary new technology. The company is promising to announce a host of partnerships with vendors of xDSL chip sets, general-purpose Digital Signal Processors, or DSPs; internetworking equipment; and telephone network gear by June, with the goal of creating a complete end-to-end system that solves a major xDSL problem -- simplified provisioning of service.
"The telephone companies want to avoid the kind of provisioning nightmares they had with ISDN [Integrated Services Digital Network], where it was almost impossible for the customer to get hooked up to the network without knowing a lot of technical details about the service," said Mostafa in a briefing at USR's headquarters. "We have the potential to offer end-to-end provisioning simplicity because, unlike with ISDN, we can control both ends of this service. We're not slaves to a central office switch."
Mostafa also pointed to USR's ability to manufacture, distribute and provide customer support for high volumes of modems, something he believes the majority of xDSL players -- many of which are smaller start-up companies -- lack.
One key feature of the modem USR is proposing for 1998 is its "V.anything" approach to including virtually any type of analog dial-up service along with both CAP and DMT versions of ADSL. The modem would be able to detect automatically which version of the service was being offered and respond accordingly, Mostafa said.
Taylor remained skeptical only on whether the market has a DSP capable of supporting such flexibility. Texas Instruments Inc., which has been USR's supplier in the past, will have a new DSP designed to support xDSL in mid-1998, but that won't be available in time to meet USR's time frame.
Other vendors, such as Level One Communications Inc., may have faster DSPs earlier, according to industry sources. Neither USR nor Level One officials would confirm that fact.
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