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To: BigBull who wrote (42291)4/15/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Current elliott view--Yesterday, I said that OSX could go either way. One alternative was for 60.52 to hold and then OSX rallies above 66.80 print. That would indicate that the retracement from 71.84 was likely complete and that the Second Phase of the Rally from 47ish(Mar1) was now underway....Since today's print high took out 63.92, I think the odds are now very good that 66.80 will be exceeded on Fri. If that happens, this Second Phase of the rally has likely begun and started from yesterday's print low of 61.78 and in my view should ultimately continue rising in a 5 wave sequence to the next resistance test--which is in the 77-80 area. The prior interim peak of 71.84 should be taken out in the process of this Second Phase....Once into the 77-80 area, it will then become an important test. The First Phase rose 24.70pts (47.14 to 71.84). To confirm a true new Bull Market, the Second Phase should exceed the length of the First Phase, meaning that it should power past the 77-80 area to at least 61.78+24.70= 86.48 in the next several weeks....Provided 66.80 print is exceeded, this Second Phase may back and fill for a bit (but not below 61.78) or may keep powering forward with only minor corrections along the way. .......There is a 'small' chanch that the OSX may take out 66.80 and then go down again into the 50's via a "double zigzag" (an ABC down then up a bit then a second ABC down). I'm inclined to doubt that this will happen....My 2c fwiw
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