Jaime; My signals on the NDX have been to fickle lately
for me to want to depend on them. It's like pumping, and not
trending. Like the big uptrend was strong but now it's trying
to make up it's mind. NDX is very heavy Tech and internuts and
while the future belongs to these , we can't live off them
alone, and they have gotten priced up as if almost nothing else matters.
I'll wait until the others catch up some or these settle down,
meanwhile I'll hold a little oil ( the XLE basket ).
I've Been to busy to day trade, and fund switching is more like
position trading, I need more than just "short term signals"
at least mid term and short term, it's the mid term I can't seem
to figure on the NDX right now, whats it want to do in a week or
two ?
Can I get out if it goes south real fast ? & What are the odds that
it could do that ? It just has me scared off with it's pumping.
CNBC today implied the volatility was due to the increase in day
traders, but I don't buy that because Day Traders don't agree
it's going up/down at any one time like some school of fish.
Yet you watch the market and it's moving as if traders were a
school of fish, and the 30yr rate ^TYX is disjointed from the ^XMT
index they are suppose to oppose one another, if the ^TYX goes
up the ^XMT normally goes down, as of late both have gone up
and that to me just flat don't make sense.
Something is going on in the bond market that's not normal
and I don't understand it I think it says
some big money thinks we are going to have a rate change,
but I'm not sure. Do you think the Fed is going to cut rates
again ? hmmmm Europe cut rates not long ago, are we going to have
to match that..I just don't have enough of a clue yet. If for
some reason velvet jaws ( Creem-Spam ) thinks inflation is on the
way we will get a rate hike , hell it's got to be on the way with
this war and all is getting rid of a lot of surplus.
Including the so called budget surplus.
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Another reason ^TYX and ^XMT could be acting strange is corporate
bonds are selling like hot cakes ? ugh ugh to much for me to see,
then CMGI the internut incubator is flying high , but it's holdings
aren't; ugh ugh , do the tulip buyers think they can just buy
CMGI as they sell off the internuts and that it will go right on
up and up, it should not go one way and the nuts the other, but
it's doing it.
ugh ugh XLE up 4.34 % Today, did I call it or was that just luck ? |
