[jpc second supplier competition]
hi steve,
have been thinking about who else besides fujitsu/(orctf) might be in the running for second source adsl business with the jpc... am sure there are many, but am having trouble coming up with the short list... would be interested in any thoughts you (or anyone else) might have ...
trouble probably is my orctf bias... and am inclined to go along with NBMO... and therefore am inclined to think fujitsu/orctf has the edge on pair, csco, lu, wstl, ecilf, siemens... (tho established behind the scenes relationships will probably play their part- e.g. sprint) and who does that leave?... (no doubt that infamous blind spot) ... ;)
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doesn't seem like pair is quite there yet:
NBMO adsl sector report from 3/31 seems to imply that pair might have a shot.. but the Bankers Trust Research/BT Alex. Brown Research on pair you posted today notes that:
"There were no Avidia trials among the RBOCs and the product is currently being targeted to the independent telcos, CLECs and IXCs..."
if the rbocs are not even trialing pair's avidia (which seems odd) ... seems rather unlikely at this point they will pick up much of the second source business...
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altho cisco is #3 in the usa for adsl marketshare... believe this is mostly based on their cap product and the jpc seems committed to dmt... no doubt csco will make up ground quickly, but have a suspicion that they might have a ways to go before they are positioned to supply the jpc with dmt
the NBMO adsl sector report would seem to confirm this... altho cisco was singled out as a beneficiary of adsl rollout, it was in the context of non-rboc service providers:
"we expect that Cisco (CSCO, BUY, $112), due to its position in the marketplace and ability to deliver end-to-end data solutions for the CLECs, should be a primary beneficiary of these non-RBOC service providers' increased funding levels."
on the other hand csco has sprint, but then again the report notes that sprint is trialing pair's avidia, so who knows?
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and then of course there's lucent/wstl?.. not so sure about lu's positioning ... seems like they've been mighty quiet.. wstl just cut way back on their adsl operations- not signs of an impending rampup... the NBMO report mentions lu as a company who will benefit one step removed (they certainly had the opportunity to name them as one in the running for jpc second suppliers):
" - In addition, ADSL ramp should have a secondary benefit for suppliers of backhaul equipment -- Lucent and Alcatel. In addition to the expected pickup in ADSL access equipment sales, it is worth noting that any significant acceleration/expansion of ADSL access will likely lead to increased demand for transmission and backhaul equipment in order to connect these additional lines to the network. We believe that the primary beneficiaries in this space would include Lucent and Alcatel."
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and then there are the european/etc companies: eci, siemens, nokia etc... longer term expect we will hear from them as all seem to be pushing hard and have the "SONET/DWDM/OPTICS" expertise which seems to be an important co-component to adsl as far as decision making with the rboc's etc are concerned... as none of the above have seemed to have been able to make inroads in the us xdsl market so far... am inclined to discount their near term prospects...
tho am inclined to think that longer term we will hear from this group... am expecting strategic positioning will make pair a mighty appetizing morsel... accordingly have placed a bet on pair ... expect one of the above will take them out within the next year...
thanks again
s |
