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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P.

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To: RWReeves who wrote (599)	4/15/1999 8:22:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) of 4974

<<can't make a pipeline without 'em but I don't think the value of even pre-clinical tox and phase I is very high relative to the discounted risk adjusted earnings stream potential. There's been too much in the last few years that hits the wall in a big, ugly way in Phase III that makes coming out of this intact what I look for. >> I disagree with your view on how to validate early clinical results as future earning stream and calculate risk/reward ratio. By the some measure successful PIII trials or drug on market do not protect from risk, even when they are discounted, not to mentioned overvalued. There are to many example to start mentioned individually. With a good understanding of the important factor which will determine drug future (and value for some of this factors are from preclinical and pharmacology data) one can with good probability project drug success. I am not saying that I can do this, but I do tried. So, my vote for SU6668 wasn't based solely on early PI news, it was combination of the pass experience and what is around the candidate. I agree that early clinical data aren't drawing force in bt universe, but how efficient is market for bt sector speak for itself. Miljenko

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