Brian,
RE: Basically I see CMGI hitting $170 between
19-23 April with 60% probability
19-29 April with 90% probability
Only a 10% chance that we do not hit $170 at any point between 19-29 April.
In general, I hate predictions, particularly (since I'm a buy-and-hold type) short-term ones. Short-term predictions are wildly inaccurate, because different short-term events (wars, sector profit warnings, etc.) can have a material short-term effect on a stock, even when there's nothing wrong with the company. Wildly long-term predictions can also be just as absurd because so many variables can affect them. To me, a 12-month window is an appropriate timeframe for one stock.
Now, as long as you don't go TMexing us (45 predictions a day, one guaranteed to be semi-accurate), I think your post is entertaining. Mind you, I disagree strongly. But I'll give you this much credit: you laid it on the line. However, I and many others on here will be lining up to either eat humble pie or take a smack at you later this month... With the split coming up, I think the kind of downward pressure you're pounding the table for is quite remote.
And, everybody, while this was a wild couple of days, look at it this way: We closed Tuesday at 297+ and -- after a hellacious coupla days, we're only down 20-ish points. Hardly a crisis, when you look at it from that perspective.
Scarecrow |
