If someone else has already posted this, please excuse repetition:
bog.frb.fed.us
The money figures seem to show the Fed (or some other force) putting the brakes on the various measures of the money supply--at least in comparison with rates of growth prevalent over most of the last two years, and especially the rates following the rate cuts last fall. The aggregate growth is slowing down very noticeably. I have not checked to be sure, but as I remember, the slowdown was not this marked late last spring and in June of 1998, preceding that slide.
I am not suggesting monetary determism of the market, but with P/Es and book value and all that stretched beyond anything ever seen in the US stock market, almost any damping force could be rapidly reinforced by all the levels of leverage, which ,as we all known, reaches right down into the monthly payments due on credit card balances. Also, no one knows what the structure of derivatives of all sorts could add to any movement.
The most drastic collapse might have to wait a couple of years, until everyone gets out who has become convinced that continual payments into equity retirement portfolios is not, after all, guaranteed to produce 20% a year ad infinitum.
Cash going into mutual funds is still healthy according to Trim Tabs, but slowing according to AMG data.
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