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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Mark Johnson who wrote (10460)4/15/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Rich Wolf  Read Replies (3) of 27311
 
Mark: Thanks, and you're welcome. Strikes me that this is mostly a problem of decision-making under uncertainty, involving assigning likelihoods to the relevant events, putting them into your own personal cost function, and calculating your result. Many investment decisions are just that. Speculative investments can push the envelope.

The longs have decided, using their probability and cost assignments, that it's a good speculation to invest in. Further, that events are lining up as expected, since we checked in at the shareholders meeting. And borrowing LWS' 'jockey and horse' analogy, that we happen to be comfortable with these jockeys now, and like the way they're riding the horse.

Others want it more black and white. It is better for them to wait for the transition from 'speculation' to 'investment.' This will occur when the company shows via revenues ('PO announcement') that indeed there are customers buying the products they showed us at the shareholders meeting, made in the factory we fully saw in the video, and which the company said yesterday is now ready for prime time.

I'm not selling my shares anytime soon, at least not for the easy double coming up. Wonder who'll sell their 'investment' to the others who'll want in then, and at what price? Yessir, it's going to get mighty interesting around here. ;-)
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