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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (42302)4/15/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Ahmed Elneweihi  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Hi BigBull, My cryptic oil call is not based on a chart pattern, but more on a judgement call seeing the behavior of oil prices after it made such a substantial gain. I have seen again and again that when a commodity or a stock makes a fast move up and basically holds onto the gain and continue trading for weeks at the high level, most of the time there is another leg up. If the sentiment is mostly skeptical about that commodity or stock, that makes it more likely that the next move is up. Now for the oil, what I am noticing is that not only are the bears skeptical and discounting the recent move up as pure speculation, but also the bulls are worried that oil may not hold the recent gains and are expecting a correction. Since the market often surprises the majority, the only way the majority of oil followers at present will be surprised is if oil goes through the $17 level before even the proof of OPEC compliance is evident.
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