Mark,
Well, I think Fox is right and he is brave to state his opinion considering it's contrary to the views of most analysts.
He's my support of Paul, with some reasons behind it.
First, not only will the fourth quarter be rough, but the third quarter will be troubling across the whole market, not just storage, which will be one of the hardest hit.
And why? The media.
The year 2000 alone would be a media extravaganza without any Y2K computer problems. Now add the "uncertainty" of what latent Y2K problems exist and more importantly, the perceived impact on parts of society, and you have a media hype fest, independent of reality.
Now for the timing.
This country (and many others around the world) take a vacation from the events of world, (including the media) from June through August. So after vacations are over, school is back in, and we start to settle into the process of getting back to serious business, as we finish out the year, the media will start its raucous year 2000 celebration frenzie around October (a typically trying time historically for the market). They'll stir in the potential for the Y2K computer glitches and will postulate all manner of resulting scenarios.
I think the majority reaction will be to freeze in their tracks from about October on until we get through the month of January, because no one can predict the reaction society will have when some overlooked embedded controller screws up electricity distribution in Podunk, Iowa.
I would like Paul Fox and I to be all wrong, but I keep remembering that old saying, "When in doubt - do nothing!", and I'm afraid there will be doubt.
Besides, isn't it prudent to prepare for a problem that might not happen, then to not plan and find your shorts around your ankles? What would be wrong with an investment decision that becomes cautionary for 4 or so months. After all the US Mint has printed $50 billion more dollars just in case there is a rush to convert assets to green stuff. Hey, maybe January could be a time for some fine bargains.
Just my thoughts...
Regards,
LT |
