Kosovo Message Board - Msg: 8957356

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Pastimes : Kosovo

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3966)	4/16/1999 2:51:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) of 17770

James, I will suggest to you as a former member of the Carter Administration, that yes Germany in particular egged both Slovenia and Croatia on to secede from Yugoslavia in 1991, and then immediately recognized diplomatically the rebel governments inorder to bolster their initial shaky status. Germany sees an opportunity (economic not military) to create hegemony in eastern Europe with Russia's withdrawal. Also IMO the "ship is headed down the plank" in the Balkans now- IMO NATO's actions almost guarantees problems to follow in Macedonia first and then Montenegro. Macedonia in particular will be more serious than Kosovo in terms of the parties it will draw in.... Finally do not overestimate the impact of religious differences here. There are major geopolitical issues and economic issues which are much large drivers than religion. And Albanians are not all Muslims, but mixed Christians and Muslims, about 30/70% throughout the region....IMO pegging this dispute to religion is overly simplyfying some very complex historical problems touched off in 1350 when Turkey invaded the Balkans.....

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