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Technology Stocks : Stratasys (SSYS)
SSYS 9.450-4.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: Stratajema who wrote (82)2/27/1997 3:25:00 PM
From: Stratajema   of 316
 
Brian. George. I am ready to concede on my idea of Stratasys pursuing the development of a metal prototyping machine. I called Tufts University and it looks like their machine is going to be under development for another year with *economics* of the machine being a sizeable obstacle to commercialization. The university's engineering department is pursuing a laser-based system that still uses wire feeds. Unless there is a metal material that can be extruded in the same manner as ABS plastic, have "stronger" properties, and be economical, then I won't expect this to be Stratasys' immediate R&D goal. HOWEVER, I expect Stratasys will pursue some type of tooling venture that takes them beyond the part accuracies of the concept market. This would take the company into a complimentary niche. If I were running Stratasys I would make this a much longer term goal for hyper growth.

So that leaves shorter term R&D focused on building machines that are faster and have larger build envelopes than their planned 8000 machine. Such machines could find great acceptance in the automobile and aerospace industries and carry a good-sized price tag. If I were to make a wager on the immediate R&D goals (and I will), I believe they will add a cutter to their FDM and 8000 modelers which will smooth the layers during part building. If my memory serves correct I believe this is how the Saunders machine achieves superior accuracy. I also believe they will add multiple extrusion jets like 3D Systems' Actua modeler to make their FDM and 8000 machines faster. They will probably leave the Genisys modeler unchanged.

Lastly, don't count on me for earnings estimates since as a cautious investor I have been underestimating their gross margins and over estimating their R&D expenses. However, I've always liked upside earnings surprises. <G>

Regards,
David
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