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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 83.43-4.3%10:42 AM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18810)4/16/1999 6:38:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
I've all heard this before. PC's are turning into a sub-$500 commodity. Inertia will keep SDRAM king for a long time, etc., etc. The PC users out there who demand more and more performance are nothing more than a 20% "niche."

There are only two arguments against the widespread use of RDRAM as I see it:

1) Licensing, royalty, and marketing issues

2) No one but the 20% "niche" needs a faster computer

I don't know much about the issues surrounding argument #1, so I'll avoid talking about it for now.

But argument #2 is the same old song all over again. The skeptics don't realize that it's this 20% "niche" that pretty much dictates what the 80% "mainstream" will be using in the following years. (I remember a time when the Pentium was first introduced, and the skeptics were saying that no one really needs more than a 486.) The emergence of sub-$500 PC's isn't going to stop progress. Rather, it's only going to delay the inevitable, which is that even sub-$500 PC's will be employing next-generation DRAM technologies sooner or later (probably later).

In other words, the question shouldn't be "Will we need next-generation DRAM technology like RDRAM?" Rather, the question should be "Which next-generation DRAM technology will we all be using, and when?"

Tenchusatsu
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