SemiBull,
No, I don't work for AMAT but I am long AMAT. Although I hate the company I'm not dumb enough to bet against them right now. I apologize if my email was confusing but I know of what I speak in this area, I am willing to bet more than anyone here. So, I will try to respond to each part of your response.
1. With respect to AMAT's PR machine. In general, I don't think they are issuing PR's on every order at this point. Suffice it to say they have received significant orders from Samsung and Hyundai, all delivering between Feb-Jul with more Samsung orders planned in Q3 or Q4. ALL these went to AMAT. These were capacity buys and obviously have nothing to do with the copper issues.
2. The installed base only gives you a slight edge when new orders are coming. If it meant a lot then IPEC wouldn't have lost big at Intel.
3. FYI, the companies most supporting AMAT are in fact Intel, TI, Micron. NSC and AMD don't buy nearly the same amount of equipment as either of the previous 3 named together! While everyone says, "The IC companies don't want AMAT to become an even bigger gorilla" that is in fact what is happening.
4. I agree with your statement that SFAM does not have to get 50% of the orders for the stock to move but... They better get at least 20% of them and I seriously doubt (and would be willing to bet money) that they are getting that much. The number is probably more like 10%.
5. On copper. My apologies for confusing you. SFAM has no tool for copper that is even close. IPEC is very competitive and is winning orders. (See the thread on the UMC order) The eval fights on copper may well be very important and dictate who ultimately wins, I'm sure you'll agree. Once an eval tool goes into a fab, you have to really blow it to lose the production buys. There are about as many cases of AMAT losing an eval-to-production buy as there are photographs of Bigfoot.
6. Regarding the Auriga. I'm only saying that they are losing because the tool is not as good as the Mirra as evidenced by the current order rate I am seeing. Although there is not a wave of press releases stating it, I can only tell you that I know this to be true. AMAT is winning convincingly right now, installed base not withstanding. AMAT predicted they would have 60% of the market this year and that the market was going to be around $800M at their annual shareholder meeting. If they get 60% that's almost $500M and I'm willing to bet that's very conservative. If what I say happens and SFAM/IPEC only gets 10% of the market, that's only $80M. Their numbers won't look so good if that happens.
7. And last. AMAT is NOT giving away their CMP tools. The CMP group is the fastest growing group at AMAT and probably one of the more profitable. AMAT does give away its share of eval tools for sure, but I doubt it's as many as everyone thinks.
Sorry for the long response, hope this answers your questions. Again, no I don't work for AMAT but I know the CMP market. Also, I like the SFAM & IPEC people, some are my friends. I'm actually hoping that NVLS buys SFAM soon, that would shake AMAT up.
Looking forward to your response. |
