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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Rambo who wrote (11293)4/17/1999 2:28:00 AM
From: Chip Anderson  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
Here is a great web reference for Sam Stovall's Sector Rotation Model:

personal441.fidelity.com:80/products/education/content/sector.html

You can find more, including a pointer to his book, on my FAQ page.

As with all things financial, if Sam's Sector Rotation model was a sure thing then everyone would use it and it would no longer be a sure thing. However, it can be a useful, if imprecise, framework for analyzing the market.

As for the Transports, they are the subject of much debate these days as their traditional role as a leading indicator of industrial production has been blurred somewhat by the over-night delivery phenomenon. Many feel that FedEx and UPS are now Internet plays for example.

In addition, notice that the Transports are still only up 4% for the past month while Basic Materials and Energy are up over 3 times that amount.

Finally, one would think that the recent steep increase in oil prices would have had a negative effect on the Transports, but so far that has not been the case. While some might point to this as evidence of price-gouging by the gas companies :), I actually believe that the Transports will correct shortly when the market realizes that it overlooked this little detail.

Hope this helps some,
Chip
coolhistory.com

P.S. By a total coincidence, I just finished watching your third movie earlier tonight. I never realized just how explosive those nomadic tent were! :P
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