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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (4435)4/17/1999 7:33:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (4) of 118717
 
PORTFOLIO UPDATE APRIL 17:

For new lurkers, I update my portfolio from time to time so you can see how I have distributed my holdings among sectors, and track the winners and losers. This is a real portfolio – no smoke, mirrors, newsletters or other hype jobs. All of my trades are recorded for the thread.

It was a very busy week with lots of trading in and out of the Internuts, then adding new positions for diversification. I was in and out of ATLB (+11 points), RCCK (+1.5 points)and LPGLY (+2 points). I have a limit order to pick up LPGLY again if it dips under 25. Should have taken profits there around 35 instead of stopping out at 26 the other day.

New additions: Biotechs IMCL and BINC long, plus SCTLF, NVLS and DIALY. Added a small short in VVUS at 5 21/32 on Friday. Cashed out my TMBS calls and YHOO puts at a nice profit, and CYOE and RNWK puts at a small loss. Sold half my MSGI at 55, half my EGRP at 135 and half my FNDTF at 41 ½.

MSGI, FNDTF and EGRP now join the core portfolio as long term holds. I am also putting my remaining MFNX in the core group since I have no plans to sell it with a split coming up. Maybe never, the way it keeps going up.

Cool move of the week: selling MSGI and EGRP at the top, and getting $4 for my YHOO puts when YHOO dipped into the 170's on Thursday. That's an $800 difference compared to having them expire worthless on Friday. Mildly stupid move: not selling LPGLY for much more than a 2-point gain. Nothing truly stupid last week.

Some non-Internuts still doing well such as JOF up 23%, FRNT up 32% (new closing high at 12) and URBN up 22%. Diversify, diversify, diversify.

Holding 50% tech stocks versus 46% non-techs (plus 2% options and 2% cash). In the 50% Gains category, we have 8 current holdings over +50% ahead.

Portfolio currently ahead 51% YTD. Dow is up 14%, NASDAQ 13% and S&P about 7%. Funny how the S&P is lagging the others this year. NASDAQ down from +18% last week.

According to the Bloomberg Mutual Fund Center, the 50% Gains portfolio would tie for ninth among all US mutual funds for YTD performance. bloomberg.com

Core holdings: BRKB, WCOM, CMGI, RNWK, VRIO, FNDTF, MFNX, MSGI, EGRP: 42.5%

50% Gains Candidates: BINC, CMIV, CPU, DGN, DIALY, FLYR, FOX, FRNT, IMCL, KEA, MMPT, MXTR, NETS, NVLS, PROG, SCTLF, TCAT, URBN: 43.5%.

Sector Funds: SCGEX, JOF: 8%.

Tradin' Trash: NRAG, JADEW: 1%.

Options: OMPT May 5 puts, PAIR July 15 calls, HMK Sept 16.6 calls, BTIM September 12.5 puts: 2%. Adding WMB January 2001 40 LEAP calls this week.

Cash: 2%.

Current shorts: ENMD, ZONA, PRBZ, GBUR, VVUS and ICCAC. Equals 23% of portfolio value long. The short portfolio is underwater to the tune of 3.5% of the total portfolio right now. Still want it in place in case we have a sudden crash. ICCAC and PRBZ are the two positions significantly behind, but they are such turkeys that I refuse to cover. Tried to short more ICCAC at 17 but it is very hard to borrow.

Winners (ranked from largest % gains): MSGI (240%), RNWK (184%), VRIO (125%), CMGI (latest shares only, bought at 124 – up 110%), FNDTF (117%), MFNX (81%), WCOM (61%), EGRP (48%), FRNT, URBN, JOF, BRKB, TCAT, MMPT, NRAG, PROG

Losers (ranked from largest % loss): JADEW, MXTR, CPU, CMIV, NETS, FLYR, DGN, KEA, DIALY, NVLS, IMCL, BINC, SCTLF, SCGEX, FOX (last six are less than 10% losses)

Currently 16 winners and 15 losers, or 19 and 18 if you count shorts (options are too volatile to include week to week).

SECTORS: I am adding Biotech as a sector for the first time. Definitely not my specialty but these two picks came well recommended.

Internet Services: CMGI, RNWK, VRIO, MMPT, MSGI, DIALY (21.6%)
Financial/Insurance: BRKB, EGRP, SCTLF (16%)
Broadcasting/Communications: WCOM, MFNX, FOX, TCAT (15.3%)
Retailers: PROG, NETS, CPU, JADEW, URBN (9.5%)
Hardware: CMIV, MXTR, DGN, NVLS (8.5%)
International: SCGEX (Europe), JOF (Japan) (7.6%)
Travel: FLYR, FRNT (6.3%)
Biotech: BINC, IMCL (5.5%)
Software: FNDTF (3%)
Computer Services: KEA (1.5%)
Gaming: NRAG (.8%)

Comments, questions and suggestions more than welcome as always.
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