Go read the release on the Yahoo RDRT site about Seagate's earnings (URL below). I think this industry could be dead money for at least another quarter. But that is just my opinion. The analyst who wrote this thinks longer.
fnews.yahoo.com
I like the fact that I was not the only one caught by this industry's "head-fake" in January. Unfortunately for me, it cost me my net worth to have missed the call.
Doing taxes has a funny way of making you look at history. I have tried RDRT three times in the last year. Each time I have lost major money being too early. I got hurt in the fall and killed this month. Out primarily on margin calls. Interesting lessons in investing.
This puppy could get into the very low $5's or high $4's on a very bad intra-day in my opinion. I hate to see that for the longs that stayed. But at those levels I might be a buyer depending on what else was available. If they can make GMR, RDRT will only be one competitor among many. Several of which are foreign and have possibly different and more favorable practices in their home country then we have in the U.S.
The rumor of more lay-offs is awefully present. I see it all over the Yahoo thread. The comments are that it is a deep cut. That could be viewed as a life or death move by RDRT. In this market if you move like your dead the money will leave in a hurry. So far that group has had information I did not want to hear, but in general they were right. Given the Sell Side analyst are down on PC's and this sector particularly, I would not expect that what the Company says on 4/26 to be taken favorably.
That's my assessment. It is worth what you paid for it. I paid $328,932.85 to learn it in the last 12 months. The only time I have made money on RDRT is in 1997, trading it. The 1997 positions were held for 17, 8 (in July), 4 and 3 (in September) days respectively and had an aggregate gain of $18,989.76. The 3 day position lost a small amount. So lifetime RDRT has cost me $309,943.09 (that is way too much for an unemployed guy). I wish I had played it better, but I didn't. The only important move is what to do next, history is just that. I'll be watching to see if I think there is a time to get it back. IMHO this one owes me, big time. But in my opinion it is not now, and trading it might be a better play.
More disclosure then warranted, but you asked.
Later, Dennis
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