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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)
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To: StockMiser who wrote (11108)4/17/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Andreas  Read Replies (7) of 41369
 
To Thread - So much Blue Sky?

I bought aol this week at 145. And now I ask - did i pay too much? So to help answer this question i peruse the aol thread looking for insights and wisdom. And there are plenty of helpful posts - on both sides. But there is something that troubles me. So, so many of the posts are along the lines - "....aol will be at 300 by year end", or "aol is the blue-chip of the net and can go nowhere but up", or "aol has doubled since ________ and will double again by ____________." Then there are those that say "buying aol requires faith in the greater fool theory of investing" In other words, aol will continue to go up so long as you can find a greater fool to sell to at a higher price. Others make a compelling argument that a pe which may hit four digits in a couple of months is a bit high.

Alright, we are all big boys and girls, and we can all read. And we all understand that if aol should ever miss earnings growth forecasts or earnings expectations or new subscriber expectations or some other indicator of continued phenomenal growth aol will get killed. And so here is the $64,000 question to aol shareholders - Can any of you point to credible evidence or analysis that aol's sales and earnings and subscriber #s will be at a point on December 31, 1999 to justify this stock doubling by that time? We have to concede the point that these indicators of continued phenomenal growth better be a lot higher in 9 months if this stock's continued price rise is to be sustained. In other words can anyone say "here's a quantitative analysis explaining why all these growth factors will be so much higher in the future so as to justify a further doubling of price".

Eaagerly awaiting. And please do not point to past performance - the past is the past. There are literally thousands of companies whose past was a lot rosier than the present.
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