Hi all.
Interesting week. I ended up in pretty good shape compared to what could have been. I got out of MSGI the very opening of morning of the selloff. Funny thing happened again at Schwab. The order went in at 9:32 but wasn't registered until 9:45. That ended up being around a 3 point reduction. Of course that was nothing compared to what happened within another half hour--whew. Schab is really goofed up right now because of its overwhelming increase in business. However, remember when AOL had overload problems that were reported in the press as a negative but was a signal about strong growth that was really a positive sign longer term for investors.
Schab also is giving me problems over what they claim are two free rides--a big no-no, but they screwed up big time. The first was due to their lame "balances" screen which showed "0" balance due compounded by misinformation. The second was due to them really screwing up--just what I want to do Monday--be on the phone with them for an hour while they straighten things out. I went with Scwab originally because I thought that being biggest, they were the best. Of course I bought a Jacuzzi once based on their reputation--worst major purchase I ever made. It was great until it borke down within a year. It was months getting parts. Then it happened again, and it was months more. I found out EVERYBODY was having the same problem Sorry. Wanted to get that off my chest. Anyway be careful to avoid free rides.
Maybe the other brokers are worse. At last when they screw up, Schwab usually seems to try to fix the problem. Still, its inefficient and wearing.
I got back into MSG at 36. But I'm going to watch closely, because I'm not so sure we are done yet with the downturn. I do agree with those that say this looks like profit taking rather than a fundamental change. The question is, how much profit will be taken before the new base is reached? After all, many of these stocks are still 50% or more above where they were a month ago, so there are still some big profits on the table.
I have a couple of candidates for you. One is actually a bona fide value category stock--unlike most that are being talked about here these days. TKLC. They sell test equipment to the wireless community. They had been on a roll until the last two quarters when revenue growth did not increase at the previous rate and earnings took a hit because of delayed purchases. TKLC lost 75% of its value and has been below 10 for a few months. It looks like its starting to move again based on the past few days and perhaps earnings are back on the right track. Unlike NMGC , which I really like but is trapped in perceived to be slowing growth industry, TKLC's industry is still unquestionably in the high order growth phase. I'm not in TKLC yet but thinking about it--opinions?
Another I like--although it probably is not a value stock is Valley Music, VMIX., which IPO'd and has sunk back to 26. This one I'm in. Imet someone in management about a year ago and have read articles in the Sacramento Bee (the company is based in Woodland). The company is growing fast and the feedback is nothing but raves. Valley is a wholesale distributor of cd's, DVD's to Amazon among others. My only question long term is the impact of the web on music and video and therefore future growth in hard entertainment media.. Near term it's a blip IMO, but video tapes will be obsolete within 10 years, maybe sooner. CD's I'm not so sure about. The kids that mostly buy insist on mobility and minimum hassle.
Last. XTON. I wrote of it earlier along with ELCO and CNKT. Another poster got it right IMO. XTON is pure speculation with money to be made near term strictly on hype bumps.
That's it for now. Thanks for the info on the USIA. Is there a way to set up our own tv station beaming into Yugo? We may not make converts but maybe some of the more reasonable might at least understand the brutality of Milosovic if they saw the Kosovan kids with bullet holes in their backs.
Jim |
