Thanx Les: That clears up in my mind how those guys were out
running most of the others. A limited venture capital strategy
within the fund sure has gone a long way to sling shot them
to the top, had I known they were playing that game earlier
I sure would have been in them.
I think it will continue to pay off as long as the IPO market
on internuts is strong, but when it ends ( like the bio-tech did )
it will be time to get out.
I'm buying or going to try some VWEGX on a dip ( if we get one )
in spite of their huge run up they could have more to go.
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I show them up 179% since Aug 31st 98, I had no idea they were
going to switch tactics , at the time I started tracking them
I had a note "scratching them from my consideration list "
The dog I "scratched" wins the race, an the one I picked came in
a distant third ( RSEGX )..there was no way I think I could have
known back in August that VWEGX or VWMCX would fly, they had
such a bad track record. I had narrowed the field down to 4,
1st one up 97% , second pick up only 4.64%, had two 3rd place
contenders one is up 35% the other 20%, , this was out of a field
of 20 no load small cap funds using my filter had I took all 4 equal
weighted would have made 39% , the field collectively made 37 %
it's ironic that two of my scratches beat every thing else hands
down.
I had 5 scratches in Aug, taking them equal weighted
they are up 45.8%, beating my best picks about 9%.
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Conclusion, while filtering on history you may gain a small percent
over the entire field, how ever using long term history can not match
watching recent momentum, it's a momentum market and surprises
are the norm. If a fund makes the initial criteria to be in the field, then scratching it off the list is a mistake.
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My criteria was SML cap no load..thining them out via history
then staying the course was a mistake.
How ever I didn't play it like I said above , I only took
one , and sold it too soon RSEGX is up another 24% since
I made an exit.
It appears those 3 are not playing by the same rules that other
sml cap funds are using.
Jim
Ps
Any one reading this be sure to click back and read
Les's post. |
