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Technology Stocks : RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK)

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To: Jenne who wrote (2710)	4/17/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: LWolf	Read Replies (2) of 5843

Jenne... well... let me get out the crystal ball and polish it up here....OK.... now what do I see...... ummmm.... ummm.....not sure......the past is a little clearer than the future.....but let's give it a try..... for one thing... as we came into Friday and the nets kept dropping... I said you gotta be kidding.....RNWK had corrected almost 35% from it all time highs..... then in the last hour in the last drop I started looking at CBOE options open interest and I found it absolutely amazing how much open call open interest on RNWK and other net stocks were going to expire worthless.....and then I felt calmer. I sorta subscribe to options expiry max pain theory (are you familiar with it?). And now net stocks are on sale.. a 35% correction is typically considered a buying opportunity. During the next two weeks a lot of earnings reports are coming in besides RNWK on Tuesday... if they're really strong I think the sector could revive with everything at on-sale prices... I can't believe we've got a true rotation into paper and oil... I more believe that fund managers felt that they had to spread the wealth (from their inflows because they can't put all their money into the nets). It may be a surge in retail investors that help get the stocks moving up again. To a large extent it's been the retail buyers who've first believed in the internet companies, and they may start to feel that with a stronger market and with some other areas with a little small market cap with lots of growth potential like RNWK.... is a better place for their money. On the other hand.... once we're into May.... I think we'll see general flatness througout all the markets.... Back to the volatilities, lower highs, then lower lows.... until something causes another sprint (like 2Q earnings and fund inflow placements). We seem to be in what they're calling stairstep progess BTWDIK :-\| tea leaves may be just as effective :) laura BTW I averaged in a few more shares around 2 pm on Friday.... wish I'd waited until 3:30!

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