NDE (INDYMAC MORTGAGE) Watch it go down !!!! Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : NDE (INDYMAC MORTGAGE) Watch it go down !!!!

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To: ronco who wrote (15)	4/17/1999 7:17:00 PM
From: Typhoon	Read Replies (1) of 28

I've followed this stock for years. Their basic business model is a mortgage conduit like FNM and FRE. They package non-conforming mortgages and sell them to institutions like insurance companies. The management is very bright. I've seen Mike Perry present 3 times, he usually is with Loeb. Mazillo and Loeb are the brains behind CCR and I think both are on the board of NDE. With a pre-announcement of earnings better that the street, announcing a $0.38 dividend in June, and a positive projection of business trends, I think this stock is thouroughly flushed out. I suspect with an $11 book value, strong mortgage flow, they should be able to return to past profitablity of $0.50 a quarter. A corresponding dividend yield $0.45 could be achieved in 6-18 months. Now this new Loanworks business will be incremental. The management said this business won't add to earnings this year (I can't remember their words exactly but it sounds like this division should make a few pennies) There are several internet mortgage companies coming to market and we'll see what kind of market cap they can garner. I figure you can add 50-100% of the market cap they capture to NDE. Without the mortgage.com business I figure they would move to 15-25 in 6-18 months. I figure add the numbers to see where we will end up. I figure they should be a strong player in this market because of the level of sophistication and experience they already have in this market. They will later do an IPO on the internet business, holding 80% of the company boosting book value and improving their ablitity to borrow. In the insane world of the internet, don't discount the prospect of a $30 price target in the next 4 months. Just my opinion, long and feeling vindicated.

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