Roger, now that people have put the last of their 1998 IRA money in the market (at all-time DJII highs specially engineered for the occasion, IMO) and another option cycle has just concluded, I'm betting we're gonna see a nice little drop starting next week. (In fact, in many indexes, it's already begun. Check the graph for the DJII over the past week, then check the graph of any other index of your choice. Which one doesn't belong?)
I'm looking for high 30's at some point before May expiration, but I think we will close in the low 40's. I'm going to try legging into May 45 - 42 1/2 put spreads starting Wednesday or so, after the traditional post-expiration confusion due to unwinding and repositioning by the big boys.
Whoever mentioned the low volume on Friday, hear hear! We began to see significantly lower volume than normal on a daily basis right around the end of the calendar quarter, March 29th or so. Big Money is out, except for you know who, and ain't getting back in. The path of least resistance is DOWN. Maybe low 40's is a little too conservative for an expiration goal, now that I think about it.
My ultimate target is the teens at some point before the end of 1999, maybe before Labor Day. |
