First, I updated my weekly charts at the MDA site.
As I was doing so, what else would this market give us other than conflicting signals. Most of the outlook I gave in my earlier post that I am responding to right now, was purely based on the daily chart reads and amount of decline relative to support levels on those daily charts. As SO always points out, there is often more credence in the weekly charts. My weekly charts contradict my dailies A LOT !!!
The TXX tech index, IIX and INX internet indexes showed they were due for a bounce soon on the dailies HOWEVER on the weekly charts, they formed a tweezer top formation which is a fairly highly reliable reversal signal at tops of mid term trends. I Now think these could continue to drop but will have to try to get some time to read into my indicators, run some scans and look at some individual charts. The XCI index is a hair from being a bearish engulfing candle and close enough for me to say that if MSFT and EMC earnings don't spark a serious rally this week, the tech sector could basically be dead for the spring at least.
The FPP Paper index which was over bought on the daily shows a nice breakout over resistance on the weekly chart and could just settle back down to test the new support line then take off again. Too dangerous for me to play, that is for sure.
XBD Brokerage is a sell on the weekly cut and dry due to trendlines etc but with all the good earnings, why? Sell the news????
JPN Japan, is at the weekly resistance line and has a class 2 sell, the LTX broke through resistance and has a class 1 sell, which to believe? I tend to think the break out could win since my signals are based only on over bought and over sold. Breakouts often cause sell signals on my system and so there could be more movement up in the next couple weeks.
The biggest dilemma I see is the DXY chart which I finally got updated on both the daily and weekly. I have sell signals on teh weekly with the price stuck at resistance on the weekly. However, there is what I would call an ascending triangle that usually breaks upward. Try as I might, I can not make this look like a bear flag, bearish wedge in my eyes and only see it breaking through to the upside despite my system's signal. This is going to be a trader with lots of money being made or lost inthe next week. The apex is approaching fast and it will have to do so soon. Breakouts or breakdowns tend to do so on heavy volume and fast. Too dangerous for me after my bad time last week.
Basically, rough waters ahead and an unproven boat. I can make arguments for either up or down but the candles and many of my indicators are saying don't expect too much from techs, brokers and telecom right now. The dollar could move hard and fast which will affect the market also if the move is too drastic.
Tired of writing right now but there is more possible upside according to the weekly charts also on the CEX and others I mentioned before. Confusing market this last 12 months.
Thoughts? Comments?
Lee |
