BigBull; down boy, sit....eeeeeeeeeeeeasy ....(VBG)
Ya gotta luv da' Bull !
Actually, we do not disagree. However, we are talking 2 different perspectives.
First, Wolanchuck is a visionary - sees the trend well before the market does. Most of us here were in the Wolanchuck camp, we felt that the Global Liquidity pump would be inflationary, we knew there were initial signs of Asian growth & demand that the market was discounting (the Koreas, Phillipines etc.). We also felt that a large measure of the entire ''Glut'' crisis was somewhat manufactured and ''spun'' to the advantage of the International ''Powers that be'' as they needed a low inflationary enviroment, or an actual deflationary one, to do their work Globally.
However, the great lesson here imho, is that knowing what is right, seeing a trend well in advance, matters very little if the Street & the Marketplace do not agree and actually refuse to assign any value to it. A great example, (which supports my trading vs. buy & hold philosophy here by the way) is that a buy & hold investor could have arrived here in the Oilpatch as late as the first week in March - mere weeks ago; and could have bought at OSX 48ish and caught the entire run here ! - so just how much value did being early really have to a buy & hold investor ?
5 weeks ago isn't ''early'' by any definition....
I am not casting any aspersions at anyone, quite the contrary - this is one of the great ''trading/investing lessons'' that I have learned here and was one of the great frustrations for me personally. It is something that from here on - I will use to temper any personal ''early'' entries in the future... they will all ways be on a ''trading'' basis..... it raises the question to which the answer is not one that I like - that being; Does it really matter how early one is, if the Market refuses to assign any value to being early ?
Think about that.... How effective was it in retrospect, to be very, very early here ? Unless one was trading, or was willing to react to the markets reactions and - ''trade'' - what were the rewards ? We had 4/5 Rallies bounce off of the high 60's to 72 here, only to retreat back to the starting blocks each and every time. Presently, every media source in the universe has an article about Oil & Energy on its cover, or as a lead story. Everyone in America is talking about gasoline prices and OPEC. What is somewhat disappointing to me; is the relative minor degree of value that being early really had ! The only value gleaned by anyone, was by those who traded...
In retrospect, I think the real value in being very, very early is having the lead time to do the research - to pick the ''ponies'' and to watch, study and analyze the sector in question. The only real advantage we have here presently imho, is we know the individual players a little better than the Johnny Come Latelys and we know the sectors behavior a little better; as we know the support & resistance levels of individual stocks and have a feel for patterns and trends within the sector. But, once again - these advantages are more ''trading'' oriented than beneficial for buying & holding. What actual realized fiancial gain do most longtimers here have over someone who arrived mere weeks ago ? - again, not an aspersion, just a frustrating commentary on reality...
re: Cramer
I think that the important thing is ''not'' if Cramer is right, or wrong about the shift in cyclicals, but the information on trading & market insight, as to ''why'' he feels the way he does and his market related commentary.
Where I think most people have Cramer wrong, is that they criticize him for what they view as ''changing'' directions, or positions. Actually, isn't that exactly what a ''trader'' is supposed to do ? To a large degree, it doesn't matter nearly as much as to how correct a ''traders'' market views are, as his reactions to them and his ability to react to them. I think Cramer is basically stating that he sees this cyclical shift as primarially a small market jolt, led by just a few rather large players (Magellan Fund etc) and that there does not seem to be an underlying trend coming from Wall Street to necessarially follow right here - right now. Now while Cramer may be wrong - and at the least he would have missed much of the move here initially - allthough he has been in & out of HAL and a few others since Jan; it is how he ''reacts'' to being ''wrong'' that is actually many times more profitable than being ''right'' in the first place...
Where I do give Cramer credit is that he has his trades, his thoughts and his day to day analysis right out there... How easy it is for the public to criticize those who make specific calls - and how foolish it is to support and admire those who stand on the sidelines and allways waffle in the middle ground. While Cramer is not ''God'' - what he is - is one of the most entertaining, most educational and most open public ''pundits'' around; and he is certainly the most courageous imho, as who else puts it all out there on the line on a daily basis - reviewing and analyzing not only the victories, buthis own losses...? Above all, one can learn quite a lot from Cramer... at best, I would not even begin to criticize the insights of 20 years of active trading and his inside -out look as a hedge fund manager; at worst, I would acknowledge that one can learn as much from the ''mistakes'' - be they Cramers, or our own, as from the ''wins''... good, bad, or indifferent - right, or wrong; no one else out there shares more, or is willing to put it on the line like this guy...
In closing; when ''Talking Analysts'' - I have actually found more value in the ''audible'' calls - livetime on the line - ala~ Cramer; than in the ''pre-game/pre-season'' type of calls by Wolanchuck... I didn't allways think this way - but, reality is lifes sternest teacher... |
