Re: Future Crude Price
Hi artic,
That was well said back in January, and I'm inclined to agree with you, except for ---
<<<"...Still have 8 dollars a barrel to go before end of 99!">>>
OPEC has said clearly that they want Brent in the high teens, and Not higher.
Higher oil price hurts them in the long run by encouraging non-OPEC oil producers to try to take more market share. A high oil price also encourages alternative energy development. OPEC's members will benefit most in the long-term from a nice Moderate oil price. They know this, and they can sure kick the legs out from under any excessive run-up in oil price. And they will, imho, if/when it comes to that.
Not that this is bad. High teens Brent is just fine. But I think we should bear in mind (if you'll forgive the expression) that if OPEC acts to hold down price, its actions may be misunderstood. This might give a nice future buying opportunity. That's still some $ up from here, of course. But the time will probably come eventually.
$25 oil, on the other hand, is not coming, imho. Well, perhaps very briefly there could be a surge up in price, but not to stay. Not for any longer that it takes to open the taps and get it back down where it 'belongs'.
But WDIK?
regards,
diana |
