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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: diana g who wrote (42527)4/18/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: articwarrior  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Still a believer at 25 per barrel..

Thanks Diana,
When I posted that Future price there were several factors which I considered beginning with current dismal demand forecasts. The first plus factor was the large amount of "missing" oil that I discounted as miscalculation. Second I examined (thanks to RGPin, Big Dog, Slider, Douglas and Platter for the sites) the declining rate of rigs producing oil and taken out of service. Then the "Panic" levels of third world countries suddenly seeing their fortunes disappear from their grasp.
Each factor when combined and in concert adds up to a rubber band effect that I still believe will end up (peaking) at 25 a barrel by the end of 99. I do not believe that the 25 per barrel is sustainable given the reduced response time it takes to spin up rigs necessary to meet the supply shortage.
The sleeping giants are our Asian counterparts and India. Take a look at current population trends among the world. China and India will consume huge portions of our oil resources at a break neck pace. Asia is recovering even faster than I expected and we will see that draw on oil within the next two months. India may take a bit longer but will demand huge resources to support their growth. Korea if you haven't heard already has increased manufacturing output as their economy is fast recovering from the "FLU"
The US is currently trying to support two theaters of war in Iraq and Balkans; this takes enormous expenditures for fuel as evidenced recently. And finally add a fully valued US Market which is going through SECTOR ROTATION and I still see 25 per barrel.

Regards and Good Fortune

Articwarrior
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